How Long Will Social Media Last?
How long will social media as we know it last?
We've been told to believe that social media is an inevitable force. We've been told to believe that the likes of Facebook, Twitter, and even LinkedIn are cornerstones of society.
We also said that about MySpace, Vine, and countless apps that died before I got my first iPad.
In recent months, I’ve seen the word “enshitification” thrown around in online circles. Coined by Cory Doctorow, this term describes the process by which online spaces decline over time. And, according to Frank Landymore, it’s happening now. Landymore claims that over 50% of content online is already AI-generated, and that number will only rise as time goes on. For the Metas of the world, this is a good thing. More content means more scrolling, and therefore, more ad revenue. But it comes at a cost.
I believe that people will inevitably get sick of mediocrity and start filling their time with things besides doomscrolling. In order to understand this, we must study what’s happening on social media now, and what’s happened in other enshitified industries.
Let’s start with Instagram. The app was first launched on October 6, 2010, as a place to share static images with your friends. The platform wasn’t monetizable, and feeds largely consisted of your inner circle. Over time, that shifted. As brands began joining the platform, Instagram began harvesting user data in bulk. That data was eventually sold to advertisers who previously relied on organic reach alone to sell. Then, Instagram started stealing successful features of other services. It stole Snapchat’s story feature and effectively recreated TikTok with Instagram Reels. These moves, coupled with an incredible algorithm, converted Instagram into an advertiser-first product where your attention is the product. Instagram has become hyper-optimized to steal as much of your attention as possible.
Instagram is following a similar enshitfication process to countless other businesses moments before they flame out.
Create an excellent product that real people want to use.
Reformulate that product to maximize revenue for shareholders, alienating the users who made the product work.
Reformulate that product for shareholders, alienating everyone else.
Desperately try to fix the problem, and fail.
When I first downloaded Instagram, I loved it. I got to see what my friends were up to, laugh at silly memes, and talk about LeBron’s greatness under ESPN graphics. And while I can still do that, it’s much harder now. Promoted content is everywhere, and half the feed is AI-generated anyway. I no longer want to be on Instagram, and I suspect it’s only a matter of time before other people start agreeing.
This is not that different from what happened to Panera Bread. What started as a small bread company in St. Louis became a national brand known for its premium ingredients. Then, it streamlined. It closed its dough-making facilities, which were the primary reason Panera made good bread. It also made its portions smaller and even replaced its signature mac and cheese with inferior frozen slop. Essentially, my former favorite fast casual place became a source of overpriced hospital food. These cost-cutting maneuvers reduced Panera’s operating costs but cost the company brand loyalty and overall sales. While CEO Paul Carbone has a plan to fix the brand, those changes don’t involve sourcing better ingredients or meaningfully improving the cafe experience– the two things Panera was once known for. But hey, at least the shareholders are happy!
Both Meta and Panera have sacrificed their “thing” for increased efficiency. Ben Lovejoy reports that “Meta has admitted that its daily active users declined by 20 million this quarter, and the company is taking steps to try to improve the quality of both Facebook and Instagram feeds.” Yet, these changes fail to address the root of the issue. We don’t want AI-slop content. We want old-fashioned human slop. Who cares if a photo lacks the perfect composition? At least it’s real! If Meta, TikTok, and other tech giants don’t start to address this issue, their traffic will only continue to decline.
People aren’t replacing Meta with different social networks. They’re replacing it with physical media, real-life conversations, and genuine community building. That’s because Meta’s product used to be a simulation of a community. Now, the community is the product, and the target audience is the advertisers. Daniel Ikechukwu notes that “a foundational survey reveals that 50% of Americans have made a deliberate point to disconnect digitally, prioritizing screen-free time for their mental well-being. This movement is led by younger generations, with 63% of Gen Z and 57% of millennials consciously getting offline.”
If social media dies, it will be because of the hubris of tech billionaires. They think we will tolerate slop content forever, but we won't. We didn't accept Panera's enshittification, and we certainly won't accept it from tech giants that want to separate us from our communities. Eventually, we will get off the apps and into the real town squares.
Sources:
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/over-50-percent-internet-ai-slop
https://www.britannica.com/money/Instagram
https://decorwithstyle.com/did-panera-change-their-mac-and-cheese/
https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/panera-bread-launches-salad-stuffers-to-win-back-customers
